Мировой туризм-2016: влияние террора и экономических проблем

Аналитики World Travel&Tourism Council (WTTC) подготовили Глобальный доклад-2016, отображающий индекс влияния терроризма и экономических потрясений (в том числе Brexit) на туристический сектор. TRN представляет своим читателям актуальную информацию по этой теме.

WTTC сообщает о высоких темпах роста отрасли, несмотря на трудности с терроризмом, политическими волнениями и глобальными экономическими изменениями во всем мире.  

По результатам нового исследования и по данным за первые шесть месяцев 2016 года, ожидается, что мировой туризм (въезд и выезд) к концу года вырастет на 3,1%, опережая глобальный прогноз экономического роста на 2,3%.

Так, региональный прогноз показывает, что:

— Туристическая отрасль Южной Азии будет расти на уровне 5,9%, что обусловлено сильными экономическими перспективами в Индии.

— Темпы роста туризма в Латинской Америке будут худшими среди всех стран мира. Ожидается снижение на 0,9%, в основном из-за Бразилии, несмотря на Олимпиаду в Рио.

— Северо-Восточная и Юго-Восточная Азия, как ожидается, покажут в этом году  стабильный рост на уровне 4,7% и 4% соответственно. В Китае рост будет еще существеннее – в пределах 6,3%.

— Северная Америка не перестанет «ощущать себя» хорошо, с прогнозируемым ростом на 3,1%.

— Европа будет недополучать турпоток, но по-прежнему продолжит расти на 2,2%.

В то время как глобальная туристическая картина мира остается положительной, прогноз WTTC (с момента последнего прогноза в марте 2016 года) для некоторых стран все-таки ухудшился:

— Во Франции вклад туризма в ВВП продолжает расти, но прогноз роста был снижен с 2,9% до 1,1% в связи с макроэкономическими волнениями в других европейских странах. Серьезно усугубляют ситуацию во Франции и недавние теракты, в том числе совершенный в Ницце.

В Турции рост вклада отрасли в ВВП был дополнительно снижен экспертами с -0,2% до -3,2% в связи с несколькими террористическими актами, дипломатическим спором с Россией (Прим. TRN: который на данный момент урегулирован), неудачной попыткой государственного переворота и территориальной близостью сирийского конфликта.

— В Бразилии турсектор продолжит сокращаться  несмотря на положительный эффект от Олимпийских игр. Темпы роста были понижены дополнительно с -0.9% до -1.6% на фоне политических потрясений и слабой макроэкономической деятельности страны.

В докладе также речь идет о влиянии Brexit на мировой и региональный туризм. Так, отрасль Великобритании находится в 2016 году на хорошем уровне  с ростом 3,6%. Прогнозируемый ранее спад выездного туризма на 3% будет компенсирован за счет увеличения в стране расходов международных посетителей в результате благоприятного обменного курса.

David Scowsill, президент и главный исполнительный директор WTTC так комментирует результаты исследования: «Согласно нашему докладу, туризм продолжает опережать рост мировой экономики, что еще раз подтверждает  устойчивость и надежность сектора. И стоит учитывать, что индекс не принижает влияния негативных факторов на туризм. Между тем, на макроэкономическом уровне мы продолжаем регистрировать высокие темпы роста. Важно помнить, что туризм является силой добра. Он приносит огромные социально-экономические результаты для стран и соединяет представителей разных культур. Мы призываем правительства продолжать фокусироваться на экономических и социальных вкладах от отрасли, а также активно работать совместно с частным сектором».

Источник: trn-news.ru

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