Прогноз или приговор… Что делать рынку?

Эскалация терроризма, ухудшающиеся межгосударственные отношения оставляют все меньше светлых пятен на карте мира, и последние международные исследования это лишний раз подтверждают. Туристическая отрасль, такая «нервная» и зависимая от геополитических, природных и экономических катаклизмов, становится заложником отягощающейся ситуации в мире. Туроператоры теряют деньги и туристов, раскрученные направления и, за последнее время – уверенность в будущем отрасли.

Делать долговременный прогноз сейчас – дело неблагодарное: в любой части мира практически в любую секунду может произойти что угодно, и никто никаких гарантий дать не может, пока тотальное зло не будет уничтожено полностью, 100%.

Однако остаются все же страны, где эпидемическое влияние терроризма пока не ощущается.

Institute for Economics and Peace и University of Maryland выпустили в свет Глобальный индекс терроризма (The Global Terrorism Index — GTI), который отражает уровень негативного влияния террора на социально-экономическое состояние 162 государств.

Согласно этим данным, только 38 стран мира не испытывают тлетворного воздействия терроризма на свою социальную и экономическую жизнь. В том числе: Япония, Монголия, Румыния, Словакия, Южная Корея, Северная Корея, Финляндия, Оман, Вьетнам, Польша, Латвия, Куба, Панама, Уругвай, Сингапур, Туркменистан, Узбекистан, Папуа-Новая Гвинея и другие страны.     

Портал TRN обратился за комментариями к представителям туристической отрасли России, чтобы собрать мнения и понять, какие выходы видятся им в сложившейся сложной ситуации, и как рынок будет жить дальше.    

Коммерческий директор турагентства «Магазин путешествий» Александр Преображенский с сожалением отметил, что российский туризм практически «лежит в руинах».

«После запрета авиасообщения с Турцией и Египтом можно с уверенностью сказать, что отрасль не просто пострадала, а лежит в руинах! Нельзя разрушать фундамент и надеяться, что здание не упадёт, либо само быстро перестроится. Я понимаю, что другого пути не осталось и ответ вполне адекватен, но для туризма это ещё один удар. И удар очень сильный! Что будет? Все надежды возлагаются на внутренний туризм, но адекватной замены Турции наши курорты дать не смогут», — эмоционально подчеркивает Александр.

По его словам, нет отельной базы, необходимого количества номерного фонда, а также перевозки, инфраструктуры для отдыха, тёплого для круглогодичного отдыха моря и стабильной погоды.

«Конечно, выиграют страны Средиземного моря, но это было бы панацеей, будь у нас крепкий средний класс, но его нет. В Турцию ездили представители среднего класса, но из числа низшей его части (Low level), эта страна подходила им по ценовому уровню, удовлетворяла их требования к качеству отдыха, помогала почувствовать себя успешными и значимыми. Испания, Греция, Италия – не их страны! Здесь они не получат тех составных частей ментального понимания концепции настоящего (по их стандартам) отдыха. Поэтому, это часть нашего населения, а у нас их большинство, останется дома. Туризм – это не только отдых, но ещё и способ образования, окультуривания людей. Если нашему человеку нечем заняться, он начинает пить! Вот и получим в результате всплеск бытового алкоголизма. – уточняет Александр Преображенский. — Но, вернёмся к отрасли. Что ожидает её? Дальнейшее стагнирование, разорение компаний и, как следствие, –  потеря потребителя, который будет отвыкать от традиции путешествия в другие страны. Скорее всего, поездка за границу станет уделом только определённого слоя населения – богатого и космополитичного. Но опасна и другая тенденция. Сколько туркомпаний разорилось за последние пять – шесть лет? Десятки. И среди них достаточно крупные и ведущие операторы. Видим ли мы игроков, пришедших им на смену? Ни одного нового оператора на рынке не появилось! И это показатель. Предприниматели не видят в туристическом бизнесе привлекательных сторон и не желают вкладывать деньги в нашу отрасль».

По словам эксперта, одна из главных тенденций для рынка состоит в том, что число туроператоров будет сокращаться и дальше, а турагентства открываться не будут, поскольку не станет потребителя.

«Но рынок то останется! И потенциал его весьма велик. Вот тут на место отечественных компаний придут мощные зарубежные фирмы, имеющие возможность дождаться новых, более хороших времён, которые обязательно наступят. И тогда мы потеряем отечественный туризм, а приобретём отрасль управляемую иностранным капиталом, который, естественно, будет развивать выездной туризм, который ему более выгоден. Круг замкнулся! Нельзя рушить, без поддержки того, кто страдает от этого разрушения. В противном случае, эффект «бумеранга» неизбежен», — заключил эксперт.

Мнение PR-директора Национального туроператора «АЛЕАН» Елены Захаровой отличается от предыдущего. По её прогнозу, отрасль может выжить за счет внутреннего туризма.

«Конечно, ситуация для всей туротрасли страны весьма сложная. Прежде всего, волнует положение розницы. Египет и Турция – это бюджетообразущие направления не только в ассортименте международных туроператоров, но и большинства туристических агентств. Полностью восполнить потери продажами туров по России не получится, поскольку достаточно велик процент самостоятельных путешественников. Но не буду отрицать, что это возможно. В нашей практике есть немало примеров успешных агентств, специализирующихся на внутренних направлениях и странах ближнего зарубежья. Я не призываю всех переквалифицироваться, но тем, кто ранее не реализовывал туры по стране или делал это в ограниченном формате, отчасти придется пересмотреть свой подход. Главное – изучайте продукт, для адекватного восприятия и качественного отдыха в нашей стране туристу необходима грамотная консультация. Так что придется учиться, а мы со своей стороны всегда готовы помочь», — говорит эксперт.

Руководитель проекта BOOKINNA Леонид Пустов также считает, что закрытие дешевых направлений очевидно приведет к переориентации рынка на внутрироссийские направления, а также к перераспределению спроса на азиатские страны.

 

«В результате событий в Турции могут пострадать турецкие туроператоры, которые занимают значительную долю рынка. Снижение уровня конкуренции неизбежно приведет к росту цен. 

 

Можно ожидать сжатие рынка классических туров, ускоренный рост доли индвидуальных туров и развитие сегмента самостоятельных путешествий. Рынок будет адаптироваться, и преимущества получат российские туроператоры, а также компании, развивающие технологические продукты: системы бронирования для конечного клиента, инструменты формирования индивидуальных туров, в том числе динамическое пакетирование туров», — заметил эксперт.

Сопредседатель Федерального координационного совета профессиональных и общественных туристических объединений России Карен Гончаров уверен, что именно сейчас на первый план выходит вопрос безопасности российских туристов.

«Но получается, что ни в одном государственном органе власти никто точно не знает, сколько наших туристов и в каких странах находится  в данный момент. Нужно продумать как лучше наладить такой учет, Как вариант можно продумать как использовать для этого наиболее популярные соцсети. Тогда мы сможем располагать хотя бы примерной информацией о количестве российских граждан, выехавших в те или иные страны в целях туризма. Это, в свою очередь, позволит правильно составлять сценарии поведения туристов, Ростуризма, туроператоров и турагентств на случай объявления нежелательными для посещения отдельных стран или регионов, как это произошло Египтом и складывается с Турцией», — подчеркивает эксперт.

По его словам, необходимо в законодательном порядке установить критерии объявления «запретных» туристических направлений, ввести ответственность за нарушения и определить размеры финансово-экономических компенсаций для турбизнеса в таких ситуациях.
 

«Считаю, что в местах за рубежом, где отдыхает наибольшее число наших туристов, должны быть открыты дополнительные консульские службы. Хороший пример в связи с этим — открытие российского консульства в Хургаде, хотя и с опозданием. Вполне можно спрогнозировать куда будет переориентироваться выездной турпоток и организовать там соответствующие представительства МИДа, Ростуризма и других заинтересованных служб. Конечно, надо решать на межгосударственном уровне вопрос об присутствии наших специалистов в зарубежных аэропортах, массово принимающих и отправляющих рейсы в России для непосредственного контроля с их стороны при техническом обслуживании бортов и обеспечении режима безопасности. Опыт Израиля в это вопросе позитивен и доступен для применения», — уточнил Карен Гончаров.

Он также добавил, что увеличение объемов внутреннего турпотока произойдет естественным путем в связи известными событиями.

 

«Но наш турист, побывавший за границей, уже достаточно требователен к условиям средств размещения, предлагаемому комфорту, поведению персонала, качеству питания и соотношению цена-качество. Поэтому, для того чтобы отечественного туриста массово развернуть на посещение регионов России предстоит еще много сделать. Региональные власти и местные отельеры должны пригласить ведущих туроператоров к диалогу и детально, по шагам обсудить с ними, как и что нужно сделать для привлечения к себе новых туристов.  Сделать так, чтобы у туристов возникло желание еще раз вернуться на этот курорт, в этот регион.

Следует в ускоренном режиме пересмотреть федеральные и региональные программы развития внутреннего туризма в сторону их уточнения и актуализации. Уверен, что их реализация, а значит быстрое расширение туристического потенциала Российской Федерации, возможны в формате государственно-частного партнерства. Государство берет на себя ответственность за туристическую инфраструктуру (дороги, коммуникации и т.п.) и снимает по максимуму все административные преграды для открытия новых отелей, объектов посещений и т.д., а бизнес вкладывает свои средства в реновацию и создание новых туристических объектов и маршрутов и в рамках открытой конкуренции завоевывает отечественного и иностранного туриста. Очень важно при этом, чтобы государство прислушивалось к мнению и советам турбизнеса, который точно представляет проблематику, отлично изучил мировой опыт в ходе более чем 20-летней работы с зарубежными партнерами и хорошо знает, что надо сделать для развития туризма в нашей стране. Будет правильно, если в состав только что образованного Координационного совета по развитию внутреннего и въездного туризма при Правительстве РФ вошли бы также представители профессиональных и общественных туристических объединений», — говорит Карен Гончаров.

 

В пресс-службе многопрофильного туроператора ANEX Tour TRN сообщили, что в настоящий момент в компании прорабатываются замещающие маршруты в страны Азии: Шри-Ланку, Камбоджу, Вьетнам, Таиланд, Индию, а также открыты новые направления Израиль и Иордания.

«Приостановка авиасообщения с Турцией будет таким же ударом для туристической отрасли, как и закрытие Египта, поскольку Турецкая республика предлагалась в качестве основной альтернативы туристам, пострадавшим от приостановки реализации египетского турпродукта. Мы вынуждены подчиниться решению властей и оказать всяческое содействие туристам, которые сейчас находятся в Турции», — дополнили в пресс-службе туроператора.
 
Напомним, что после крушения российского Су-24 над территорией Сирии МИД РФ рекомендовал россиянам временно не посещать Турцию, а Ростуризм посоветовал туроператорам приостановить продажи туров в эту страну, в том числе и через третьи государства.

Крупнейшие российские компании уже отреагировали на эти заявления. Так, туры в Турцию временно прекратили продавать  ANEX Tour, «Пегас Туристик», «НТК Интурист», «Натали Турс» и туроператор TUI.

«Туроператор TUI в настоящее время не осуществляет продажи туров в Турцию. Компания работает с этим направлением только в течение летнего сезона, предлагая клиентам туры с вылетами с апреля по октябрь. Старт «раннего бронирования» туров в Турцию на будущий летний сезон отложен до снятия рекомендаций МИДа российским туристам воздержаться от посещения этой страны», — уточнили в компании.

По оценке аналитиков АТОР, в Турции сейчас находится более 10 тыс. российских туристов. Примерно 20% из них – это те, кто перебронировал туры в Турцию из-за приостановки авиасообщения с Египтом.
 

«Поскольку ноябрь – не сезон для Турции, пока преждевременно говорить о серьезных потерях для бизнеса. Однако, если конфликт усугубится, и приостановка продаж продлится 2-3 месяца, ущерб для туристического бизнеса на порядки превысит потери от запрета полетов в Египет», — считают в АТОРе.

Российские туроператоры оценили потери от приостановки реализации туров в Египет в 1,7 млрд рублей.
 

Источник: trn-news.ru

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